The Daily Decision-15-Conjunction fallacy … when is 2 less than 1?
The Daily Decision-15-Conjunction fallacy
Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision
because you want to make better decisions.
M4A
MP3
DD-15 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
image from Pexel
activity-fitness-leisure-374589
https://dr-z.net/category/dr-z-podcasts/daily-decision/
Today is the FIFTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. When she was in college, she majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in progressive demonstrations.
Which is more probable now?
- Linda is a bank teller.
- Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
Most people say B, but the correct answer is A
Why?
This is an example of the conjunction fallacy in decision making and the Linda example is from Kahneman and Tversky 1982.
That is when we hear two things, we automatically add them. After all, 2 is greater than 1 but in probabilities 2 is less than 1.
In Linda’s case, we can assign a 5% probability to Linda being a bank teller and 95% probability of Linda being active in the feminist movement.
When we multiple .05 * .95, we get .0475 which is less than 5%.
When you’re confronted with a decision with multiple parts. Isolate them before considering their connections.
—
Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.
Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.
If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z
As always, Happy Deciding.
The specified slider id does not exist.